Omnis Agility update: February 2026
Market-moving events
US threat of military force
At the start of the year, US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and took them to the US to face charges. The move raised concerns that similar actions could be taken elsewhere, particularly involving Iran. Tensions between the US and Iran escalated, pushing oil prices more than 10% higher in January. Global equity markets largely shrugged off the rise in tensions as investors awaited clarity
US–Europe tensions escalate
President Trump signalled a desire for US control of Greenland on geostrategic grounds, heightening tensions with Europe and prompting tariff and military threats. Although Trump later softened his stance and talks with Denmark turned constructive, the situation remains fluid and the implications for US–EU relations are significant.
US dollar hits four-year low
The US dollar fell to its weakest level in four years amid expectations of further rate cuts, softer US economic data, rising geopolitical tensions and a rally in the Japanese yen. Speculation over coordinated US–Japan currency intervention briefly strengthened the yen, before US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruled out intervention, triggering a short-lived dollar rebound. Despite this, the broader trend remains negative.
Investment highlights
Increased US small-cap exposure and portfolio rebalance
During the month, we rotated further out of US large caps and into US small caps to increase portfolio diversification. We remain cautious on the outlook for US large caps due to elevated market concentration and stretched equity valuations. Increasing exposure to US small caps allows us to retain US market exposure while reducing concentration risk. As part of these changes, we conducted a full rebalance of the portfolios.
Remain cautiously positioned.
We retain a moderate overweight position in bonds and an underweight allocation to equities, particularly US large companies, reflecting the factors outlined above.
Issued by Omnis Investments, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered address: Auckland House, Lydiard Fields, Swindon SN5 8UB. This update reflects our view at the time of writing and is subject to change. The document is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. We recommend you discuss any investment decisions with your financial adviser. Omnis Investments is unable to provide investment advice. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information but no assurance or warranties are given. Past performance should not be considered as a guide to future performance. Approved by Omnis Investments on 1 February 2026.
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